Millions are looking for real change

Millions waited for hours to vote in massive numbers to change the face of US politics. In particular among the young and African American’s Barak Obama’s victory has witnessed a huge wave of enthusiasm and brings the hope of a decisive change in a country that is being ravaged by recession and traumatised by the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.  Alan Manley asks the question..will Obama be able to deliver real change?

Barack Obama has been elected US President on a wave of opposition to George W Bush’s failed, policies in Iraq and above all the impact of the economic crisis that has swept the US like a Tsunami.
Tens of millions of people in the US, especially the young and the African American community and those facing loss of homes and jobs will welcome Obama’s victory. Millions more internationally will also hope that the defeat of Bush and the neo-con cabal that has visited carnage on Iraq and Afghanistan represents a new foreign policy approach under Obama.
The 2008 election revealed the huge anger among workers and young people after 8 years of George Bush’s pro war, pro corporation right wing policies; poll after poll show over 75% of Americans dissatisfied with the way things are going.
Obama tapped into this mood and presented himself as a challenger to the Washington establishment. His campaign has politicised millions of workers, youth and African Americans excited by the prospect of the first black president. Many hope that he will reverse the growing inequality in American society and help workers facing declining pay, disappearing jobs, high prices, increasing health care costs and fuel bills, and the threat of eviction.    
He becomes the first African American President at the most critical time in recent history for US capitalism. The economic downturn, sparked by the sub -prime mortgage crisis in the US, is now dragging millions of people across the states and the wider world itself toward a dark and uncertain future. In America unemployment has grown dramatically along with house repossessions and personal debt.
The symbolic significance of Barack s victory, the call for change that he has outlined in vague and general terms will not protect his administration for the enormous problems and tests ahead. The biggest deficit in history, the most volatile market conditions in a century, the weakest global growth outlook since the 1970s and a tinderbox of political instability in almost every corner of the world just waiting to be sparked into life by prolonged economic unrest.
A new policy?
In the primaries much was made of Obama’s pre war opposition to the invasion of Iraq, but in the senate he consistently voted to fund the war. He has promised a 16 month withdrawal of combat troops from his inauguration in January next year. But this plan still leaves 60 to 90,000 troops based in Iraq for years to come. Furthermore he has backtracked and states he will refine his timetable for withdrawing troops. This is not an anti war stance. Indeed Obama says he will maintain the massive U.S. military budget -and has called for an increase of 92,000 troops- currently over $600bn and larger than the rest of the world’s military’s spending combined (Reuters,30/06/08).
Obama’s position reflects the consensus in the ruling elite that they face an untenable position in Iraq but cannot countenance the massive blow to U.S. prestige that would come from humiliating withdrawal. The security of2/3rds of the world’s oil reserves is at stake after all. He has pledged $30bn in American aid to the Israeli government over the next 10 years (much of it military). Despite calls for more diplomacy he will not lift the blockade of Cuba, while at the same time continuing to fund military aid to the right wing government in Columbia and reinforcing a hard line on Iran.

No socialist
Obama’s plans on taxation led McCain to call him a socialist, a term of abuse in American politics but close inspection indicates Obama’s proposals to “spread the wealth around” are far from radical.
The top 1% of American society can expect their tax bill to go up meagre $19,000 a year. On the basis of these moderate proposals fiscal experts in America estimate that the budget deficit will increase by $200 bn in 2013. That means the federal government will have less money to address the problems of rising unemployment, reform of social policy and a crumbling infrastructure, let alone lower the deficit itself. Obama may adopt more Keynesian type policies in an attempt to avert the impact of the recession but Obama’s campaign was tied to those responsible for the crisis in the first pace the billionaires and the rich bosses.
He raised more money from big business then his republican opponent.  In August he raised $7.8m in just 3 hours at a fundraiser in San Fransisco. All the banks associated with the sub prime crisis, Goldman Sachs, Lehman Brothers, JP Morgan, Citigroup, have given money. In return Obama has opposed a moratorium of evictions and the freezing of mortgage interest rates while 2.5m Americans expect to lose their homes this year. He also voted against an amendment to cap credit card interest rates at 30% and opposes serious regulation of the banking industry. In a recent TV interview he stated “I am a pro growth, free market guy, I love the market”.
His economic policy team is led by Jason Furman, a prominent defender of Wal Mart one of the fiercest anti union companies in the world. He has also sought to distance himself from criticisms of the North American Free Trade Agreement he made during the primaries; and, has backed down from pledges to reopen NAFTA to expand labour and environmental protections.
40 years ago black people in America were being murdered for demanding their right to vote. The struggle for civil rights, for some, is culminating in the victory of Obama. But, as socialists we have to reflect that electing Obama will not alter the position of America’s black working class and poor. The sub prime crisis and the evictions that have followed have hit black working class neighbourhoods hard.
Take another example the loss of better paid unionised jobs in the US over the past 30 years has had a greater impact on the black working class. Between 2000 and 2005 the number of African Americans in unions fell by 14% compared with 5% for whites.
Despite Obama’s victory with the working class in general facing worsening conditions the plight of black workers and all workers will be even harder.
That’s why a new party to represent the American working class needs to be built.